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November 02 Definition of low risk.A methodology with a long-term positive expectancy and a reward (overalll return) to risk (maximum peak-to-trough drawdown) ratio with which you can live. The methodology must be traded at a position size level (usually based on a percentage of equity) that will protect you from the worst possible conditions in the short run while still allowing you to achieve the long-term expectancy of the system.
Tharp. October 23 Losing Trades - Why You Must Learn To Accept ThemThe fact is that no-one can make winning calls 100% of the time, no matter how good a trader they are. Indeed if you read through some of my old posts, you will see that I've made a few duff predictions in my time. Losing trades are part of the game and if you have aspirations to become a profitable trader, you are going to have to accept that fact. The key to success is to manage your losses by cutting them early and keeping them small, whilst either letting your winning trades run for as long as possible, or making sure they at least exceed your losing trades. Let me give you a few scenarios to demonstrate this point: Trader A is a short-term trader who looks for 20 pips per trade and uses a stop loss of 120 pips to give himself every chance of hitting these targets. His winning success ratio is an impressive 90% and he averages 10 trades per week. Trader C is more of a position trader. He looks for profits of 150 pips per trade and uses a stop loss of 25 pips. His success ratio is just 20%, ie 80% of his trades are losing trades, and he too averages 10 trades per week. Which trader is the most profitable? Well let's work it out: Trader A, who has the highest amount of winning trades (and probably the biggest ego), averages 60 pips per week. Trader C, who is only able to identify winning trades 20% of the time, averages 100 pips per week. 设止损,提高命中率,承认错误。
October 19 EUR-USD 2009-10-12 Trade NoteA failure trade happened on 2009-10-12.
I made a sold on 1.46975 on 10-12 since a trap in RSI (blue line crossed green line and going to cross red line on 10-09, but not crossed actually). Also a trap in Stoch RSI (blue line was going to across red line, but not crossed actually on 10-09).
If at that time, i could analyze other Technology charts and made a careful comparation,
such failure trade should not be happened.
In daily charts, for example,
1. In MACD, red lines' trend is going up.
2. In MACD Histogram, red line was going to cross blue line (golden cross). It means trend is gong up.
3. In Stoch RSI, even tough it was showing potential cross on 10-09. First, it did not actualy cross.
Second, the cross happened between +75 and + 25 could be a weak cross, it is not able to change trend's direction.
So, trend should keep on going up.
4. RSI chart made a main trap for me at this time. Since on 10-09, i found blue line has crossed green line, and it
was going to cross red line. So, I made a sold trade on 10-12.
However, if we analyzed RSI charts in its history data, we would find that RSI blue line always makes three tries (or called traps)
to cross green line but not cross red line before trend finally changed direction from up to down trend (It means blue line corssing green line then red line finally.)
In RSI chart, if trend going to turn its direction from bull market (up) to bear market (down),
It must be position of blue line upper then green line, green line upper than red line. Movement must be
1. Blue line crosses green line first.
2. Blue line crosses red line second.
3. Green line crosses red line third.
4. After finished trend direction change, It must be position of red line upper than green line, green line upper than blue line.
5. After direction turning movement finished, the trend would continue going down, or another reversion would happen (down to up).
As for CCI, the first two tops on Oct are showing bull (up) trend. On Oct 09, event tough CCI is going down, but
it hasn't generated third top on that day. So, we cannot make decision hurry on Oct 12.
For CCI chart, most useful things is Tops which is closing one by one. Since depending on a direct line linking two tops,
we could easily find whether it has departure (背离) in current trend's movement.
Thus we would know whether current movement is over sold or over buy.
MACD with Histogram.
Stoch RSI. RSI CCI |
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